Polymarket Bets 73% on Hormuz Strait Normalizing by May as BTC Hits $78K

Polymarket traders are pricing in a 73% probability that oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal by May 31, following Iran’s announcement that the critical waterway is temporarily open under ceasefire terms.

The odds briefly touched 82% on Friday after Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi confirmed the reopening on X, before settling back to current levels. Shorter-term bets remain skeptical—traders put just 40% odds on normalization by April 30.

Traffic Collapsed 95% During Conflict

The stakes here are enormous. The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 21% of global oil consumption and 20% of LNG trade. When the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict erupted on February 28, daily vessel transits cratered from 100-140 ships to single digits—a 95%-plus collapse that sent energy markets into chaos.

“The passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of the ceasefire,” Araghchi posted, specifying routes coordinated by Iran’s Ports and Maritime Organization.

Oil markets responded immediately. WTI crude futures dropped over 10% to below $84 per barrel on April 17, while Brent fell under $90—both reflecting optimism about easing supply disruptions.

Bitcoin’s Geopolitical Trade

BTC spiked to $78,000 on the ceasefire news before pulling back to around $77,358. The move underscores how tightly crypto has traded with geopolitical risk since the conflict began.

But don’t expect a straight shot back to six figures. Crypto analyst Nic Puckrin told Cointelegraph the ceasefire is “fragile” with core issues unresolved. He outlined what BTC needs to reclaim $90,000: an actual end to tensions, oil prices sustained near $80, and softer economic data that eases stagflation concerns.

The conflict’s fallout will likely dominate markets through most of 2026, potentially pushing any Fed rate cuts to Q3 at the earliest—if they happen at all this year, Puckrin added.

Blockade Stays in Place

Here’s the catch that explains the prediction market’s caution: President Trump confirmed Friday that the U.S. naval blockade on Iran remains “in full force and effect” until negotiations are “100% complete.” The U.S. has even expanded operations to pursue Iran-linked vessels globally.

Shipping companies aren’t rushing back either. Elevated war-risk insurance premiums and concerns about mines in the waterway mean the “return to normal” threshold on Polymarket could prove harder to hit than the headline odds suggest.

Bitwise analysts have noted the conflict may actually highlight Bitcoin’s expanding role as a hedge—arguing its addressable market could eventually exceed gold if geopolitical instability becomes the new baseline.

For now, traders are watching two dates: April 30 for the near-term normalization bet, and May 31 for the higher-conviction trade. The spread between those odds—40% versus 73%—tells you everything about how much uncertainty remains.

Image source: Shutterstock